STEMFold: Stochastic temporal manifold for multi-agent interactions in the presence of hidden agents
Hemant Kumawat, Biswadeep Chakraborty, and Saibal Mukhopadhyay
In 6th Annual Learning for Dynamics & Control Conference, 15-17 July 2024, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 2024
Learning accurate, data-driven predictive models for multiple interacting agents following un- known dynamics is crucial in many real-world physical and social systems. In many scenarios, dynamics prediction must be performed under incomplete observations, i.e., only a subset of agents are known and observable from a larger topological system while the behaviors of the unobserved agents and their interactions with the observed agents are not known. When only incomplete obser- vations of a dynamical system are available, so that some states remain hidden, it is generally not possible to learn a closed-form model in these variables using either analytic or data-driven tech- niques. In this work, we propose STEMFold, a spatiotemporal attention-based generative model, to learn a stochastic manifold to predict the underlying unmeasured dynamics of the multi-agent system from observations of only visible agents. Our analytical results motivate STEMFold design using a spatiotemporal graph with time anchors to effectively map the observations of visible agents to a stochastic manifold with no prior information about interaction graph topology. We empirically evaluated our method on two simulations and two real-world datasets, where it outperformed exist- ing networks in predicting complex multiagent interactions, even with many unobserved agents.